Daily Murders in the nation Fall Thirty-Seven Percent During President Sheinbaum, According to Official Statistics

The typical count of everyday homicides per month in the country has decreased by more than a third since President Claudia Sheinbaum took office, according to fresh administrative figures. However, security analysts have cautioned that murder numbers may not point to better countrywide safety.

Marked Decline in Per-Day Averages

There was an average of almost 55 killings a day in the month of November versus nearly 87 when Sheinbaum began the presidential office in the previous September. This data was delivered by the head of the country’s federal public security agency, Marcela Figueroa Franco, during the president’s daily news conference on Tuesday.

“The result in killings that we have seen in these past months is remarkably significant,” Sheinbaum stated, adding that in November the least amount of homicides were documented for any single November in the past decade.

Recent Context and Official Plan

Fierce organized crime rivalries, combined with the administration's highly military efforts to confront the trafficking organizations, have caused Mexico’s murder rate rise sharply in recent years. The figure peaked at a record high of 36,773 homicides in 2020, per the country’s national statistics office.

That resulted in Mexico a murder figure more than four times higher than the United States. From that point, murders have been on the downward trend, declining to 33,550 last year. Claudia Sheinbaum has attributed her public safety plan for an seemingly more pronounced reduction in homicides in the current year.

At a news briefing in August, the Mexican leader said: “There is a strategy, there is oversight of the plan, and there is detailed monitoring municipality by municipality in some cases. The plan works. And we have to keep working at it daily.”

The key elements of Sheinbaum’s security strategy involve:

• Reinforcing Mexico’s federal guard.
• Improving intelligence and investigation capabilities.
• Greater cooperation between various departments.

Analyst Skepticism and Data Concerns

But, security researchers urged caution that relying on murder numbers to assess the situation of improved security was flawed. This is particularly true in light of the rise in other criminal activities such as forced disappearances.

“That would be positive information if this was a reduction, but I think we shouldn't just concentrate on the homicide data and conclude: ‘Oh well, good,’” stated Cecilia Farfán-Méndez, an specialist on Mexico's organised crime. “I would be tentatively hopeful.”

As reported by the public policy research organization Mexico Evalúa, homicides overall dropped by over 20% in the initial 10 months of this year relative to the same period the previous year. Yet, missing persons cases have risen by 15% and in certain states have surged by up to 200%.

“Statistics on homicides is no longer reliable for gauging the reality of violence,” argued Armando Vargas, a safety analyst at Mexico Evalúa. “Firstly, we have law enforcement and prosecutors who lack the ability or the desire to accurately recognize and categorize remains. Second, organised [criminals] … have the capability to conceal violence through disappearances.”

Vargas added that relying on month-to-month averages of daily killings was similarly an issue because it could mask days when there were notably elevated numbers of killings.

“Using the per-day mean makes spikes of violent crime invisible,” he stated.

Arrests and Seizures as Metrics of Progress

Where the government can highlight the success of its safety plan is on detentions and seizures. Nearly 40,000 suspects were apprehended between last October and this past November for major crimes, according to government figures. Over 20,000 guns were confiscated and 311 tons of drugs intercepted.

“The former US president can't accuse President Sheinbaum of inaction, because the reality is she is accomplishing a lot with these many thousands of detentions, thousands of confiscations, and all the operational degrading of criminal groups. It’s very in political terms advantageous,” said Vargas.

Persistent Unrest and Societal Frustration

Yet notwithstanding these measures, Mexico remains plagued by high bloodshed, with several regions in the throes of cartel-driven conflict. In the previous month there was a high-profile killing of a well-liked mayor in the region of Michoacan, among 10 local leaders murdered in the past year.

Weeks later, thousands of youth protested in the capital and across the nation to show their outrage at corruption and narco-violence.

“The administration frames [data] in a manner to build a story of safety. Politically it’s highly potent, from a social perspective it’s extremely questionable,” the analyst concluded.